Fantasy Premier League: Harry Kane to Erling Haaland – how price changes work
FPL’s two most expensive strikers changed prices on Monday as Erling Haaland went from £11.5m at £11.6m and Harry Kane fell from £11.5m at £11.4m.
This surprised many managers who wanted to make the straight trade to optimize form and fixtures, so we took a look at what happened.
How do price changes work?
Player price changes are based on activity in the transfer market: players transferred in a bundle are likely to go up in price and those that are sold are likely to go down.
The only time we don’t see price changes is when unlimited transfers are in play. This happens before Gameweek 1 and also during the World Cup break between Gameweek 16 and Gameweek 17.
Price changes usually occur at 2:30 a.m. (BST). Players can only go up or down by £0.1m per day and the maximum a player can go up or down between game weeks is £0.3m, but that’s rare.
The price change formula is unclear, with the FPL rules stating: “The formula used to calculate this change and the time of the change include variable factors and will not be revealed to players.”
However, managers can track predicted price changes on Fantasy Football Hub or FPL Statistics. I recommend using both websites simultaneously. There may be discrepancies at the start of the season if FPL has changed its price change algorithm.
Prior to Gameweek 1, all player prices are in £0.5m increments, so price changes are most noticeable at the start of the season. Once high performers rise and underperformers fall, managers are quickly left out of a straight trade – as we saw with Haaland and Kane. This is why some managers choose to leave £0.5m in the bank for Gameweek 1.
💰 The #FPL the transfer market is in full swing, with our first price changes overnight…
⬆️ Haaland £11.6m
⬆️ Mitrovic £6.6m
⬆️ Zinchenko £5.1m
⬇️ Kane £11.4m pic.twitter.com/1JQxpaRUjC
— Holly Shand (@HollyShand) August 8, 2022
Price changes are more frequent at the start of the season with high commitment and occasional managers likely to make a high number of transfers to hunt the best players from the previous game week. We tend to see more price-changing activity immediately after a series of encounters or just before a playweek deadline.
There are some well-known rules about price changes that are not displayed on the FPL website:
- a player who is new to the game has their prize locked in for a short time
- a player who goes from unavailable to fully available has their prize locked in for a short time
Build team value
Price changes are never fully cashed in when a player goes up, with fantasy managers only earning 50% of the profit from the sale. A player needs to raise his price by £0.2m for a manager to cash in £0.1m on sale. You can track current prices, sell prices, and buy prices on the Transfers tab list view page on the FPL website.
The FPL doesn’t make it easy for us: when a player drops in price, a manager takes the full €0.1m drop on the sale if the price drop is less than the purchase price. Managers can get some grace if that player’s price has already gone up by £0.1million since he was purchased.
All fantastic managers start the season with a budget of £100m, but as players fluctuate in the transfer market there is room to create value for the team. This allows for a larger budget as the season progresses.
Cashing in the profit is extremely important when reaching a wildcard or an unlimited transfer period: a larger budget can allow a team to be made up of more premium players. This will be particularly prevalent in the 2022-23 season, where all managers will receive unlimited transfers for the World Cup period.
Price changes are frozen during unlimited transfers but it is important to take advantage of the market when using Wildcard or Free Hit. Activate the chip as soon as possible and aim to transfer players whose price is likely to rise and transfer those whose price is likely to fall.
However, there are some pitfalls in this strategy. If you sell a player to whom you have attached a lot of value and then decide to bring him back, you will automatically have lost 50% of the profit made during previous price increases.
As a risk averse manager, I like to make my transfers as close to the game week deadline as possible. We have maximum information at this stage, know the results of matches mid week and have information on managers’ press conferences.
However, at the start of the season, and especially when there are no midweek games, I am willing to make transfers earlier in the gameweek (as I did with Kane and Haaland) to create value for the team when the transfer market is at its most active.
This widely played move from Kane to Haaland was an early example of how understanding FPL price changes – or at least having an idea of when and why they happen – can be very beneficial for managers and give them a advantage over the season.
(Top photo: James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)